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Well I’m calling it - Sep 2018 will go down in automotive/global warming history as the tipping point where Tesla positively disrupted the passenger vehicle market and EVs went from niche to mainstream and shocked the legacy makers in to action.- 100,000 Model 3 produced and sold to date (with sales limited to North America so far - USA is about 20% of world vehicle sales)
- 22,250 Model 3 sales means it’s the 4th best selling sedan in USA in Sep 18 (1.Camry, 2.Accord, 3.Civic, 4.Model 3, 5.Corolla - yes it outsold the Corolla family)
- Model 3 the 13th best selling vehicle in USA (ie when you include all vehicle types eg pickups, SUVs etc etc)
- TESLA overall (29,925 sales) 15th biggest selling brand in USA in Sep 18 (about 650 sales behind Merc and VW). Porsche: 5,102
- Model 3 best selling battery electric vehicle (22,250) - Model S 2nd (3,975), Model X 3rd (3,750) Nissan Leaf 4th (1,563) then GM Bolt (1,299) and BMW i3 (461)
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Toyota made 10.4 million cars last year, and have sold over 6.1 million Prius vehicles to date....not sure they would be too concerned. Otherwise they would probably still have their stake in Tesla, that they sold 18 mounths ago.Comment
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No arguments here about Prius -I drive one - but my take re Model 3 is it shows that you can make a gross profit producing a compelling battery electric (BEV) and people will buy it en masse instead of an internal combustion engine vehicle ie BEV is no longer a small niche segment, it is substantial and growing big time.
No one has ever done that before with a BEV.
We can now see a realistic path to BEV making up say 30% or more of total vehicle sales in 2025 as other manufacturers, including Toyota, roll out their BEVs too.
And that’s very, very good news for addressing global warming.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_fossil_fuel_vehicles
Countries[edit]
Cities & Territories[edit]England
Wales
Northern Ireland2017 2040[20] Gasoline and Diesel New vehicle sales Austria 2016 2020[21] Gasoline and diesel New vehicle sales China 2017 2040[22] Gasoline and diesel Production & New vehicle sales Costa Rica 2018 2021[23] Gasoline and diesel New vehicle sales Denmark 2018 2030 [a]
2035 [b][24]Gasoline and diesel New vehicle sales France 2017 2040[25] Gasoline and diesel New vehicle sales Germany 2016 2030[26] Combustion engine New vehicle sales India 2017 2030[27] Gasoline and diesel New vehicle sales Ireland 2018 2030[28] Gasoline and diesel New vehicle sales Israel 2018 2030[29] Gasoline and diesel New vehicle sales Japan 1996 Ongoing[30] Incentives New vehicle sales Netherlands 2017 2030[31] All vehicles New vehicle sales Norway 2016 2025[32] Gasoline and diesel New vehicle sales, buses are exempt[33] Portugal 2010 Ongoing[34] Incentives New vehicle sales Scotland 2017 2032[35] Gasoline and diesel New vehicle sales South Korea 2016 2020[36] Incentives New vehicle sales Spain 2017 Ongoing[37] Incentives New vehicle sales Taiwan 2018 2040[38] Non-electric New vehicle sales
Athens Greece 2016 2025[39] Diesel All vehicles Auckland New Zealand 2017 2030[40] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 Barcelona Spain 2017 2030[41] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 Brussels Belgium 2018 2025[42] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles Cape Town South Africa 2017 2030[43] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 Copenhagen Denmark 2017 2030[44] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 Delhi India 2014 Ongoing[45] Diesel All vehicles Hamburg Germany 2018 2018[46] Diesel All vehicles Heidelberg Germany 2017 2030[47] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 London England 2017 2030[48] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 Los Angeles United States 2017 2030[49] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 Madrid Spain 2016 2025[50] Diesel All vehicles Milan Italy 2017 2030[51] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 Mexico City Mexico 2016 2025[52] Diesel All vehicles Oslo Norway 2016 2019[53] Gasoline and Diesel All vehicles Oxford England 2017 2020[54] Gasoline and Diesel All vehicles Paris France 2016 2025[55] Diesel All vehicles Quito Ecuador 2017 2030[56] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 Rome Italy 2018 2024[57] Diesel All vehicles Seattle United States 2017 2030[58] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 Tokyo Japan 2000 2003[59] Diesel All vehicles Vancouver Canada 2017 2030[60] Gasoline or Diesel All vehicles, Electric Buses by 2025 Comment
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I am now wondering if i can stretch my mazda6 out for a couple of years to get a BEV as my next family car... not sure it quite works, but it's close!Originally posted by Bremith View Post
i am pro BEV... but doesn't it really depend on a dust to dust assessment of the batteries (ie digging up lithium, making the batteries, then recycling them at the end)... and how you source the electricity to power the car (coal vs solar and so on)?!?!?Originally posted by Bremith View Post
Richard Griffiths
1970 911T 2.8Comment
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Model 3 shd be here next year
probably at BMW 3 series money.
Or a 2nd hand i3 are attractive now at less than $40k if you don’t regularly drive more than 200kms, with the petrol “range extender” for security. If you do mainly short journeys and back to base the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is a good option, EV range of 40km if you’re careful, after which it operates as a hybrid. 2ndhand from $20k+.
I wd think a person reasonably committed to addressing global warming wd pay the premium for 100% green power to charge for zero emissions (and still be cheaper to power than ICE). There’s no zero emissions option for ICE, closest is E85 and that’s a hornets nest environmentally.
Yes everything shd be assessed whole of lifecycle (dust to dust). Less bits in a BEV means less energy to manufacture (no gearbox, clutch, pistons, block etc etc).
Lithium ion batteries can and are being repurposed eg for stationary use in homes and once their performance drops below useful level, are readily recycled.
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Looks like Toyota is (at least publicly) sticking to hybrid not EV strategy, don’t seem to even have an EV concept out there. Be interesting to see how that plays out, as a Prius owner there is a point where hybrid goes from an ICE carrying around electric motor and battery to reduce emissions/fuel use to electric motor and battery carrying around ICE for I suppose range? Once batteries get to certain point the ICE side makes no sense. I understand BMW is dropping the i3 with ICE range extender in Europe due to slow sales.
Toyota’s position maybe reflects very slow EV uptake in their domestic market as per chart?
E2F432F1-FDC1-4E9F-B0D0-FBADFD0D42D8.jpegComment
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“Astonishingly, that all means that the classic 911 sports car is the only current Porsche model guaranteed not to be turned into a full battery-electric vehicle within the next product cycle....
...And there’s also scope to move the classic 911 to a hybrid layout as well. Its all-new eight-speed automatic transmission is pre-engineered for it.
“The next [992 series] 911 is hybrid enabled. We predict that over 50 per cent of Porsche models delivered from 2025 will be electrified," Meschke admitted.”
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Example of “end to end” EV battery recycling:
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